256 games down, 16 to go.
There's no denying the fifth edition of the Road to 272 Bets has been the toughest yet, but as we limp to the finish line it's important to remember that you're either winning or learning and this year we learned quite a bit. It's also important to remember that betting on every single NFL game isn't exactly a winning strategy in the world of sports betting, so learning to enjoy the process and have fun doing it is the purpose of this journey.
With that in mind, let's enjoy the final full slate of games before we lock in for the postseason. As always, I have a bet locked in for every game as I try to end the season on a high note.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
Season-to-date record: 121-130-5 (-17.91 units)NFL Week 18 Best Bets for Every GameBrowns vs. Ravens Prediction
We need to reimagine what it means to "tank" as a professional sports team and remember that players and coaches themselves will never purposely lose a game for any reason, including a higher draft pick. Instead, a team will purposely put forward a lineup that has no chance of winning a game, even when they try to. The Browns rolling with Bailey Zappe is a perfect example of that.
As a result, there's no way I can trust the Browns to cover the spread at any number, especially against arguably the best team in the NFL the Ravens, who still need to win to make sure they lock up the AFC North.
The Ravens enter Week 18 leading the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.7 while the Browns are 20th at -0.9, a difference of 2.6 yards per play between the two teams. Don't be afraid of the big number, lay it with Baltimore.
Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction
The spread was set at Bengals -3 for some time on Monday morning, which made me lean toward Pittsburgh, but sharp money has come in on the Steelers forcing oddsmakers to move the line down to Bengals -1.5, which flips which team holds the value, in my opinion.
The Steelers have historically struggled late in the season and this year is no different. They enter the final week of the regular season ranking 23rd in Net Yards per Play at -0.3 including dead last in that stat at -1.3 over their last three games.
The Bengals' defense, while bad, has improved compared to their early-season numbers. Since Week 11, they've been 17th in opponent EPA per play, four spots above the Steelers' defense, which is 21st. That's good enough for me to lay the 1.5 points on them in a pivotal game on Saturday night.
Bills vs. Patriots Prediction
The Bills have nothing left to play for and while many people believe that will lead to Josh Allen playing limited time in this game, the side of the football I'm more concerned about is their defense. The Buffalo defense already has some question marks and now if the Bills rest some of their starters, the Patriots offense is going to look alive.
Even with their starts in the game, the Bills are 24th in opponent EPA per play and 27th in opponent success rate since Week 11. Meanwhile, the Patriots who have a young quarterback they need to give reps to and a head coach who is fighting for his job, have plenty to prove in the final week.
I'll back New England as a home underdog.
Texans vs. Titans Prediction
You will struggle to find someone who bet on the Tennessee Titans as much as I did this season. The same Titans team that has already secured the record for the worst team against the spread in NFL betting history.
I've learned my lesson too little too late, but I'm going to jump on the Texans while they're still set as underdogs. The Titans were originally set at 4-point favorites but DeMeco Ryans told the media on Monday afternoon that he has no plans to rest his starters. I don't blame him for doing so. The Texans have looked bad and taking a week off isn't going to fix their issues. Trying to iron out the wrinkles in their poor play with live reps is their only hope of competing in the playoffs.
If you can still find the Texans at plus-money by the time you're reading this, bet them. I also like them laying anything less than three points if they stick with their plan of playing all their starters.
Jaguars vs. Colts Prediction
While I can't quantify it, it seems like the Colts have some internal locker-room issues and now that they're officially eliminated from playoff contention, those are only going to get worse. No matter which quarterback plays, neither of them offers much and their defense has just been diced up by the worst offense in the NFL.
The Jaguars' season ended long ago and now they're playing some of the best football they've played this year. Mac Jones has been serviceable in recent starts and if the Giants can put up points against the Colts, so can the Jaguars.
I can't imagine laying this many points on this Colts team right now.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction
The Commanders may be hitting their stride after the perfect time and Jayden Daniels is looking as good as he has all season. He can beat defenses with both his arms and his legs and he's looked extremely comfortable the past two weeks. Now, the pressure is off this week but they can still improve their standing in the playoffs by beating the Cowboys, something they shouldn't have much of an issue in doing so.
The Cowboys were feisty with Cooper Rush as their quarterback but now that CeeDee Lamb is out, they have no offensive weapons to turn to. I don't think there's any need to overthink this game, lay the points with the better team that still has something to play for.
Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction
This line was at Buccaneers -14 but has since started to move down a point, which tells me some sharps like the Saints at that number. The big reason I'm backing New Orleans in this one is the possibility Derek Carr will suit up. He continues to insist he's going to try to come back if he can and Darren Rizzi has said they'll re-evaluate him this week. Carr ran some game-like situations in practice last week but ultimately was determined he wasn't ready to go.
If he ends up getting the nod for the Saints' final game of the season, we're going to have a great ticket on Saints +13. If he doesn't get the start, then we'll have to hope the Saints can cover an almost two-touchdown spread with Spencer Rattler at quarterback.
Panthers vs. Falcons Prediction
The Falcons need to win this game, but at the end of the day, I have no interest in laying eight points on them in this spot. The Panthers' offense has figured something out in recent weeks and should be able to move the ball well, especially considering how much Atlanta has struggled to figure out mobile quarterbacks. Bryce Young will move the ball both with his arm and legs and will look more comfortable against the Falcons than he did in either start last year.
Michael Penix Jr. looked good in his first two starts of the season, but let's remember this is still his third-ever start and there will be hiccups along the way. I'm not as comfortable enough with him to lay eight points on this team against a feisty Panthers squad.
Bears vs. Packers Prediction
The Bears are a horrific team and things have only gotten worse since firing both their offensive coordinator and head coach. They now rank dead last amongst all teams in Net Yards per Play at -1.2.
Note that the Packers still have something to play for. If they win and the Commanders lose to the Packers, Green Bay will clinch the No. 6 seed which will result in them traveling to Tampa Bay or Los Angeles instead of Philadelphia, setting up a much easier game for them.
Don't let the Packers' loss to the Vikings scare you away, they're still one of the best teams in the NFL. They rank sixth in both EPA and opponent EPA since Week 11.
Giants vs. Eagles Prediction
The Philadelphia Eagles have nothing to play for in Week 18, already having locked up the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. With that being said, the team hasn't yet said they're going to rest their starters and Saquon Barkley is just 101 yards short of the all-time NFL record for rushing yards in a season. In my opinion, the Eagles will roll with some of their starters early in the game to try to get him the record.
Don't let the Giants win against the Colts last week convince you they're a good football team. Drew Lock has still been one of the worst statistical teams in the NFL this season and one game against an imploding Indianapolis team isn't going to sway me into betting on them.
Even if the Eagles play their backups for the majority of the game, I still think they can cover this field goal spread.
Chargers vs. Raiders Prediction
The Raiders don't understand the concept of tanking. Not only are their players fighting for every inch late in the season, but their owner, Mark Davis, is celebrating every win like it's the Super Bowl. Their belief in playing hard until the final whistle is blown on the season is backed up by the fact their defense ranks eighth in the NFL in opponent EPA per play since Week 11.
Aidan O'Connell has also found his stride of late and at the very least, the Raiders still have some offensive weapons in Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers.
The Chargers still have something to play for when it comes to seeding, but the Raiders aren't going to roll over. This spread is a point or two too high in my opinion, I'll take the points with Las Vegas.
Seahawks vs. Rams Prediction
The Rams haven't announced whether or not they're going to play their starters. If they don't we're probably going to have a decent number on the Seahawks at -3. If they do play their starters, I'm still confident the Seahawks can cover this number. Despite being eliminated from the playoffs, I still think the Seahawks are the better team.
The Seahawks come into this game ranking 14th in Net Yards per Play this season at +0.1 and 13th at +0.3 in their last three games. The Rams are 21st (-0.2) this season and 17th (-0.1) over their last three games. The Rams have benefited from their defense stepping up when their offense stumbles and vice versa. Their luck in that category is going to run out sooner rather than later.
It's worth noting the Seahawks' defense ranks third in opponent EPA per play since Week 11 while the Rams' defense comes in at 25th in that stat in the same time frame.
Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction
The latest injury reports regarding Tua Tagovailoa don't look great. There's still a chance he plays, but if we read the writing on the wall it looks like Tyler Huntley could make his fifth start of the season. If he doesn't play, the Dolphins are in a bad spot. Their offense has been one of the worst in the NFL when Huntley starts, despite them beating the Browns last week.
The Jets are a disaster, but their relatively healthy, and Aaron Rodgers has one more start to prove he deserves to be back on this team last year. I'll take the point with New York.
49ers vs. Cardinals Prediction
The San Francisco 49ers may be the best bad team in the NFL. They've long been eliminated from the playoffs but they still rank inside the top three in the league in Net Yards per Play. When it comes to having nothing to play for, remember that Brock Purdy is still entering a contract offseason, which is huge for his production.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals get worse as the season goes on and Kyler Murray's December regression continues to be proven on a weekly basis.
I wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers win this one in a landslide.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction
The Chiefs have nothing to play for in this game while the Broncos have everything to play for, entering Week 18 in a win-and-in situation. With that being said, covering a 10-point spread is another question.
No matter who plays for the Chiefs, they're still one of the most well-coached teams in the league and Carson Wentz may be one of the most capable backups in the league.
The Broncos team is not exactly built to win with margin either. They lean on their defense and they've been running the ball a ton lately. I have little doubt they win, but Kansas City will do enough to keep the final score within single digits.
Vikings vs. Lions Prediction
The Detroit Lions have shown everyone that their defense can only take some many injuries. The Packers, Bills, and 49ers have put up 30+ points against them in three of their last four weeks and they can only get away with that for so long. It's going to come back and bite them sooner than later and this is the game it's going to cost them.
The Vikings are one of the best-coached teams in the NFL and they can win games on both sides of the football. Their offense can run the ball, and throw the ball, and their defense can cause a lot of issues for opposing offenses. They rank inside the top 10 in EPA per play on both sides of the football.
This Lions team is going to be able to beat teams they can get into an offensive shootout with, but the Vikings aren't one of them. I'll take Minnesota to win as an underdog in the final game of the Road to 272 Bets.
