Just when I think I've hit rock bottom with my picks, I've found a new low. It's been a disastrous season of the Road to 272 Bets, already sporting a worse record than I've had in the six years of doing this. Things somehow got worse in Week 11, finishing with as bad results as I've ever had in a single week, finishing at 2-13 (-11.11 units), which brings my season results to 67-95-1 (-25.9 units).
I'd say there's nowhere to go but up, but as we now know, that's not true. All we can do is put one foot in front of the other and try to make a historic comeback in the final stretch of the season. In the words of the late great Herb Brooks, " Great moments are born from great opportunity."
Let's see if I can start fighting back in Week 12. All my bets are locked in, so let's dive into them.
Road to 272 Bets Week 11 Record
2-13 (-11.11 units)
Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record
67-95-1 (-25.9 units)NFL Week 12 Best Bets for Every GameBills vs. Texans Prediction
The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are mirror images of each other, especially in the advanced metric DVOA. The Bills are fourth in offensive DVOA but 22nd in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, the Texans are 22nd in offensive DVOA, but third in defensive DVOA. So, will it be the team with the elite offense but bad defense, or the team with the bad offense and elite defense that will come out on top? I'm not sure which team will win the game, but the Texans' defense is elite enough that I'm willing to take the points with Houston on a short week on their home field.
Seahawks vs. Titans Prediction
If you're a believer in DVOA, this has all the makings of a blowout. The Seattle Seahawks rank first in the league in that metric, while the Titans rank dead last. Sure, the Seahawks ran into some turnover problems against the Rams in Week 11, but if we can look past that, they're still a top-five team in the NFL, while the Titans are on their way to once again having the first overall pick.
It's worth noting that the Seahawks have been dominant when playing on the road this season, leading the league in road Net yards per Play at +1.9, which is +0.8 yards better than any other road team in 2025. I'm not afraid to lay the big points on the Seahawks in Tennessee on Sunday.
Giants vs. Lions Prediction
The more the Lions lose, the more I believe they have value in the betting market. I still believe the Lions are a top-five team in the NFL and arguably the most balanced with elite play on both sides of the ball. It's time for them to do what elite teams do, and that's beat up on bad teams. Jameis Winston may be fun to watch, but this Giants' offense truly has little to offer in terms of production moving forward, with all their best players sidelined with injuries.
Let's also consider the Giants rank last in opponent rush EPA, 31st in opponent rush success rate, and last in opponent yards per carry, allowing 5.5 yards per rush. Now, they have to take on one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL. Detroit averages 4.6 yards per carry and will be able to carve up this Giants defense on the ground.
Jets vs. Ravens Prediction
The Ravens may have won four straight games since returning from their BYE week, but I'm still not convinced they've shown us enough to where I want to lay two touchdowns on them against a team coming off a mini BYE week of their own. They're outside the top 10 in EPA per play in that stretch and rank ninth in Net Yards per Play at +0.5, despite playing four relatively weak teams in the Browns, Vikings, Dolphins, and Bears.
Lamar Jackson hasn't looked like himself either. He has run for a combined 50 yards in his three games since returning from injury and is coming off two performances where he completed just 58.6% and 56.0% of passes for one touchdown and two interceptions.
I have no doubt the Ravens will win, but I'm not ready to lay this many points on this team.
Steelers vs. Bears Prediction
I'm ready to claim the Chicago Bears are the most fraudulent team in the NFL. Sure, they may be 7-3 and in first place in the NFC North, but they still rank 23rd in Net Yards per Play (-0.4), 25th in overall DVOA, and 25th in opponent success rate. They've also had the third-easiest schedule in the league so far. That leads me to believe they're now overvalued in the betting market, which means now is the time to fade them and sell your stock in the Bears.
The Steelers are far from a perfect team, but their 14th ranking in DVOA and 18th ranking in Net Yards per Play (-0.2) tells me that in some metrics, they're a better team than the Bears, which means I'll take a shot on them winning this game outright.
Patriots vs. Bengals Prediction
Ja'Marr Chase being suspended for this game certainly doesn't help the OVER, but at the end of the day, this is still a matchup between two teams whose offenses are far better than their defenses. The Patriots rank ninth in offensive DVOA but 28th in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, the Bengals rank 14th in offensive DVOA but 32nd in defensive DVOA.
It's hard to fully articulate just how bad this Bengals' defense is. They're in last place in almost every defensive metric. In addition to DVOA, they're last in opponent yards per play (6.3) and opponent EPA per play, and 31st in opponent success rate. The Patriots should have no issue contributing to the OVER in this game, and hopefully the Bengals' offense can string together enough points against the less-than-stellar Patriots' defense to help contribute to the total as well.
Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction
The Chiefs have been an extremely confusing team this season. Despite far better metrics than they had last season, they simply can't find ways to win games, something they did weekly in 2024. With that in mind, I'm going to opt out of betting on a side in this intriguing matchup and instead bet the OVER. The reason for the Colts' success this season has been their offense, ranking first in DVOA, first in EPA per play, and second in success rate. The Chiefs' offense has also been strong this season, ranking third, third, and fourth in the aforementioned metrics. That's enough for me to bet the OVER on a total that remains in the 40s for the time being.
Vikings vs. Packers Prediction
I'm willing to go down with the ship with the Green Bay Packers. Despite losing baffling games and failing to cover the spread in games, they do find a way to win, I think they're one of the few elite teams in the NFL and are primed to go on a hot streak in the final stretch of the season. They're seventh in DVOA and fourth in Net yards per Play, and they've posted significantly stronger metrics when playing on their home field.
Now, they get to face a Vikings team that has to rely on J.J. McCarthy to lead their offense. To say McCarthy has been bad this season would be a significant understatement.
Browns vs. Raiders Prediction
There's nothing to do but bet the UNDER in this AFC showdown, no matter how low the total is. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets even lower as the season goes on. No team has a bigger discrepancy between their offense and defense than the Browns, who rank 31st in EPA per play but fifth in opponent EPA per play. They're also last in offensive DVOA but fifth in defensive DVOA. They are an under bettor's dream, and while the Raiders may not be that extreme, their cut from a similar cloth.
The Raiders' defense has been an above-average unit, but their offense has been truly horrific. If they can hardly score against the Cowboys, a bottom-five defense in the NFL, then I don't know how they plan on scoring against Myles Garrett and Co.
Jaguars vs. Cardinals Prediction
I'm sticking to my conviction that the Jacksonville Jaguars aren't a good football team. Some might call them the Chicago Bears of the AFC. They're 15th in the league in DVOA, 24th in Net Yards per Play (-0.4), 18th in EPA per play, and 13th in opponent EPA per play. The Cardinals are either similar in most metrics or better, like net yards per play, where they come in at 17th (-0.2). I'm still selling on the Jaguars, so I'll take the 2.5 points with the Cardinals on their home field.
Falcons vs. Saints Prediction
Michael Penix Jr. is likely sidelined for the rest of the season, and Drake London will also miss this week's game. That's bad news for the Falcons' offense, who now only have their running backs to rely on. There are 44 quarterbacks in the NFL this season who have played at least 50 snaps. Tyler Shough and Kirk Cousins rank 40th and 42nd in expected points added plus completion percentage over expected.
If you think the Falcons' running backs are enough to put up big points in this game, consider the Saints rank seventh in opponent rush EPA and ninth in opponent yards per carry, giving up just 4.0 yards per rush.
This game is going to be one of the ugliest offensive games we've seen all season. Give me the UNDER.
Eagles vs. Cowboys Prediction
The Eagles have struggled offensively the past couple of weeks, but I can forgive that against the Packers and Lions. Now, things should open up for them when they face a Cowboys defense that's in the bottom five in almost every metric, including being one of the worst running defenses in the league.
The Eagles' defense has officially woken up. They rank first in the NFL in opponent EPA per play while taking on some of the best offenses the NFL has to offer. They should be able to fully expose a middling Cowboys team.
Buccaneers vs. Rams Prediction
There's a strong argument to be made that the Rams are the best team in the NFL. They're the only team in the league that ranks inside the top six in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play, and they also rank second in total DVOA. Now, they face a Buccaneers team that has been reeling. The Bucs rank 22nd in Net Yards per Play and 12th in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. They're also 13th in total DVOA. To make matters worse, they're 22nd in opponent dropback success rate, which could lead to a huge performance for the MVP favorite, Matthew Stafford.
This is a matchup between a team you should invest in and a team you should sell some stock in. Give me the Rams to cover the 6.5-point spread as favorites.
Panthers vs. 49ers Prediction
I don't care that the Panthers continue to find ways to win games; I'm going to continue to bet against them. They're 26th in total DVOA, 26th in net yards per play, 26th in EPA per play, and 24th in opponent EPA per play. Meanwhile, they'll face a 49ers team that is starting to get healthy and whose offense looked rejuvenated with Brock Purdy back under center in Week 11 against the Cardinals.
It's time to buy in on the 49ers, and this is an extremely favorable matchup against a Panthers team whose far worse than their record indicates. I'll lay the points with San Francisco on Monday Night Football.
