The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to engage in a clash of titans in the 2024 World Series. It’s the first Fall Classic between No. 1 seeds since 2020, and the first such matchup in a full season since ‘13. It also pits teams with two of MLB’s three highest payrolls against each other, as well as the two presumed MVPs of the regular season in New York’s Aaron Judge and Los Angeles’s Shohei Ohtani.
The Dodgers are slight favorites at sportsbooks, but if we break down the matchup position by position, would we get the same sense?
CatcherWill Smith (Dodgers) vs. Austin Wells (Yankees)
Smith, an All-Star for the last two seasons, doesn’t get as much attention as he probably should in Los Angeles’s star-studded lineup. The 29-year-old ranks third among catchers in WAR over the last four seasons, behind only J.T. Realmuto and Sean Murphy, and has delivered several clutch postseason hits for the Dodgers over the years. L.A. clearly values him, though, having signed him to a 10-year, $140 million contract in March.
Austin Wells has been a nice rookie success story for the Yankees, providing a league-average bat and earning plaudits for his work behind the plate. He’s already better defensively than Smith, whose fielding metrics took a concerning tumble this year, but Smith’s clear advantage on offense gives him the nod.
Advantage: Dodgers
First baseFreddie Freeman (Dodgers) vs. Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
These 35-year-old, sweet-swinging lefties have long been compared since their rookie seasons in 2011. Rizzo got off to a quicker start in the majors as a cornerstone for the Cubs that ended the franchise’s World Series drought in 2016. But Freeman has eclipsed him since winning the 2020 NL MVP while enjoying one of baseball’s most graceful aging curves. Rizzo hasn’t made an All-Star team since 2016—Freeman has six All-Star invites in that span.
Honing in on this year, Freeman was worth 4.6 WAR while Rizzo was below replacement level. It’s not much of a comparison anymore, even if Freeman is slightly hobbled by his sprained ankle.
Advantage: Dodgers
Second baseGavin Lux (Dodgers) vs. Gleyber Torres (Yankees)
Torres has yet to match the production of his first two seasons that earned him All-Star status in 2018 and ‘19, but he’s settled in as a 20-homer threat and has done well setting the table for New York’s sluggers during these playoffs.
Lux, a former top prospect, has had his career affected by injuries, and that issue cropped up again in the NLCS after he left Game 1 with hip flexor tightness and made only one more start in the series. But he’s expected back in the lineup for the World Series after playing a career-high 139 games this season while slashing .251/.320/.383.
This is one of the closest calls on the board—both guys recorded a 101 OPS+ this year, meaning they’re almost exactly league-average hitters, and neither is anything special on the base paths or in the field. But Torres’s power stroke and recent hot streak gives him the edge.
Advantage: Yankees
Miguel Rojas entered the playoffs as the Dodgers’ starting shortstop, but missed the NLCS with an adductor injury. Edman, who was injured for the season’s first few months and was acquired in July from St. Louis, stepped in and earned NLCS MVP honors while leading Los Angeles with 11 RBIs. Even if Rojas is healthy enough to play, it’d be surprising if Edman was usurped at this point.
Volpe earned a Gold Glove as a rookie last year, and despite not quite living up to his top-prospect billing on offense has reached base in all nine of the Yankees’ playoff games.
This is another close one. Volpe’s superior speed and glovework at a premium defensive position makes the slightest difference here.
Advantage: Yankees
Third baseMax Muncy (Dodgers) vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees)
Both of these guys have made the All-Star Game for other infield positions—Muncy for first base, Chisholm for second—but possess the versatility to hold down the hot corner well enough. They’re accordingly two players with very different profiles: Muncy possesses one of the sport’s best batting eyes and has four 35-homer campaigns under his belt, while Chisholm’s 24 dingers this year are a career high, as are his 40 stolen bases (Muncy has 14 SBs in nine seasons).
Muncy takes this matchup on the strength of his extensive postseason résumé and current form—he has reached base 15 times (including two homers) in the Dodgers’ last five games, while Chisholm is 5-for-34 (.147) with one homer and two walks in the Yankees’ nine playoff contests.
Advantage: Dodgers
Left fieldTeoscar Hernández (Dodgers) vs. Alex Verdugo (Yankees)
Verdugo gets to face the team that traded him to Boston for Mookie Betts. While he has been a serviceable outfielder in the five seasons since that infamous deal, it’s fair to say he hasn’t lived up to expectations, especially this season with career lows in every slash line category (.233/.291/.356).
Hernández, meanwhile, is in the midst of his second All-Star campaign with 30-plus home runs. Easy call here.
Advantage: Dodgers
Center fieldKiké Hernández/Andy Pages (Dodgers) vs. Aaron Judge (Yankees)
Two fun facts: (1) Both Hernández (.863) and Pages (.776) have a higher OPS than Judge (.704) during these playoffs, and (2) Hernández and Judge both have 15 home runs in exactly 239 career postseason plate appearances. Neither of those change the result here, though.
Advantage: Yankees
Now this is a fun matchup. Both of these sluggers are raking in October (Betts: 4 HRs, 1.063 OPS; Soto: 3 HRs, 1.106 OPS) and are severely overcast in supporting roles to another superstar on their respective teams.
Soto is the better hitter than Betts at this point, but the latter carries a large advantage in base running and defense (despite Soto’s dubious status as a 2024 Gold Glove nominee). If Betts reels off a stunning all-around performance similar to the one he gave in the 2020 NLCS against the Braves, I’ll eat the words I’m about to type. When it comes down to it, though, Soto was intentionally walked in front of Aaron Judge by the Guardians in Game 2 of the ALCS—and they weren’t wrong to do so! He went on to hit the go-ahead home run in the clincher.
Soto is perhaps the one hitter whom pitchers would least want to face in the postseason with the game on the line. We’re about to discuss one of the very few players who may have a better argument.
Advantage: Yankees
Designated hitterShohei Ohtani (Dodgers) vs. Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees)
Despite Stanton’s heroics over the last couple of weeks, I was not referring to him in the section above. While he did launch four home runs in the five-game ALCS, it’s worth noting those were his only four hits of the series. Stanton is the epitome of an all-or-nothing slugger.
Ohtani, meanwhile, does it all—hits for power, hits for average, takes walks, steals bases. He’s about to become the first full-time designated hitter ever to be named MVP, and there’s no one else more worthy of that distinction.
Advantage: Dodgers
BenchAndy Pages, Chris Taylor, Miguel Rojas, Austin Barnes (Dodgers) vs. Jon Berti, Oswaldo Cabrera, Jasson Domínguez/Trent Grisham, Jose Trevino (Yankees)
Berti platoons with Rizzo at first base, but since the Dodgers won’t carry any lefthanded starters, it’d be a surprise if any of the Yankees’ bench players cracked the starting lineup during the World Series.
Los Angeles has long been known for valuing versatility and making stellar use of its entire roster based on matchups. Taylor basically wins this category for the Dodgers by himself based on his postseason experience alone, but you can bet he won’t be the only L.A. backup entrusted in a key moment this series.
Advantage: Dodgers
The Dodgers’ starting pitching issues have been well documented. In Tom Verducci’s must-read obituary of Fernando Valenzuela, he noted that Valenzuela pitched more innings in the 1981 postseason as a rookie (40⅔ innings over five starts) than the Dodgers’ rotation has in 11 playoff games (40 IP). With Yamamoto’s arm still not completely stretched out since his return from injury last month, and Buehler lacking consistency throughout his first season back from his second Tommy John surgery, Flaherty is the only one whom manager Dave Roberts can trust to provide length—and Flaherty was shelled his last time out against the Mets.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have starters to spare as Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes have been relegated to the bullpen. Cole is the best pitcher on either roster and Rodón has looked good in his last two starts while learning from Cole and Yankees legend Andy Pettitte how to stay even-keeled on the mound. Schmidt and Gil have demonstrated they can get through opposing lineups twice while minimizing damage.
This answer would have been an easy call in favor of the Dodgers at the beginning of the season, but instead it’s an obvious advantage for the Yankees.
Advantage: Yankees
Bullpen
There’s some uncertainty on both sides as to which relief arms will be available when rosters are finalized Friday—Alex Vesia for Los Angeles, Cortes for New York—so I won’t speculate how that shakes out by listing each team’s entire projected bullpen.
What won’t be affected by those machinations is the Dodgers’ advantage in this aspect of the game. Roberts has proved many times over, especially this October, that he’s an expert at navigating bullpen usage. If Vesia isn’t available, there will be some concern over Anthony Banda being Los Angeles’s only lefty out of the ‘pen. But Daniel Hudson has actually been slightly more effective against lefthanded hitters this year, and Blake Treinen and Evan Phillips are the sort of elite arms whom Roberts won’t hesitate to deploy against anyone. Los Angeles wouldn’t be here without its stellar relief corps, which has yet to blow a lead this October.
The Yankees’ bullpen can’t say the same. Luke Weaver and Clay Holmes both served up home runs in New York’s ALCS Game 3 collapse against the Guardians, and Jake Cousins, Holmes and Mark Leiter Jr. combined to blow a four-run lead in Game 4 before a Yankees rally in the ninth inning. Tommy Kahnle and Tim Hill are nice weapons to have against the Dodgers’ lefty sluggers, but as a whole, manager Aaron Boone can’t be feeling as confident in his relievers as Roberts is in his.
Advantage: Dodgers
Final score: Dodgers, 7–5
