The interesting thing about odds for where players will be taken in the NFL draft is that they are usually based on reliable information. It’s no surprise that Bryce Young, not long after overtaking C.J. Stroud as the betting favorite to be taken No, 1 overall, announced he was canceling the rest of his NFL team visits. Young wasn’t reacting to the odds shift. The odds shifted because word got out that Young will most likely be the Panthers’ pick.
How confident are sportsbooks that Young will go No. 1? His current odds at SI Sportsbook to be the first overall pick are -1205. Not a very good payday.
That said, there are plenty of other speculative draft futures that can be played. Who will be the second overall pick? The third overall pick? Who will be the first wide receiver taken?
SI Sportsbook has odds for these and other markets, including which position will be drafted first by various teams. Again, these odds are based on pretty reliable information. Just about all draft experts are projecting the Giants to draft a receiver in the first round, so it’s no surprise that the odds at SI Sportsbook are at about even money (+110) that they’ll go that way.
There are currently 22 teams for which SI Sportsbook has odds on the first position drafted. Here are some interesting opportunities that offer decent plus-money payouts:
Kirk Cousins has one year left on his contract and there’s been some talk that Minnesota is very interested in Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker, who can sit and learn this year as he rehabs from an ACL tear before taking over in 2024. Hooker’s stock is rising, so maybe he’ll be gone when the Vikings pick at No. 23. If he’s there, however, SI Sportsbook has the Vikings at +550 to take a QB (the favorites are CB and WR at +175).
There are also rumors that Minnesota is planning to release veteran running back Dalvin Cook. The Vikings are currently listed at +1800 to use their first pick on a running back, but if they cut Cook you can count on that number shrinking.
Bengals
Cincinnati is another team on the verge of cutting loose its veteran starter at running back, in this case Joe Mixon. The Bengals also lost backup Samaje Perine in free agency, so running back could be a major position of need. So why does SI Sportsbook list RB as the fourth-most likely position to go first? If Cincinnati takes a running back with the 28th pick, you’d get +700 odds.
One more running back bet… The defending NFC champs have two first-round draft picks – No. 30, courtesy of reaching the Super Bowl, and No. 10, which they got from the Saints as part of a trade. SI Sportsbook expects Philadelphia to take an offensive lineman with their first pick (-143). But imagine Texas running back Bijan Robinson lining up in that backfield. With two first-round picks, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for them to grab Robinson early and take the best available offensive lineman at No. 30. It’s an added incentive for Philly that the rival Cowboys might covet Robinson. The Eagles are currently at +1200 to take a running back first.
Ravens
Will we know the fate of Lamar Jackson before the draft begins? Who knows? But if the Ravens truly fear that Jackson will not sign a new deal – and potentially sit out in 2023 rather than play under the franchise tag – then trading him before the draft so they can find a QB of the future needs to be considered. And if that happens, the odds they take a QB with their first pick will certainly go down. For now, you can get +1000 odds on the Ravens using their first pick on a QB.
Packers
So many mock drafts have the Packers taking a tight end with the 15th overall pick, which is why it’s surprising to see you can still get plus-money on that play at +250. But while there are two tight ends projected to be worth taking in the middle of the first round (Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer and Utah’s Dalton Kincaid), it’s worth noting that first-round tight ends are a bit of an unnecessary luxury. After all, the tight end Green Bay is looking to replace is free-agent departee Robert Tonyan, who himself was undrafted. The Packers would be better served waiting on a tight end and using that first-round pick on one of highly touted wide receivers available. Betting on the Packers to take a receiver at No. 15 pays +300.
